Alabama vs Penn State: Can the Nittany Lions roll passed the tide?

A	Joe Paterno will lead the Penn State Nittany Lions in an upset over the Alabama Crimson Tide.

B	Nick Saban will right the ship with the problems Alabama had in week 1 and lead the Alabama Crimson tide over the Penn State Nittany Lions.

In Week 2 of the 2011 college football season, the Alabama Crimson Tide will face the Penn State Nittany Lions in State College, Pennsylvania. Last season, Nick Saban led the (#1) Tide in a 24-3 win over Joe Paterno's (#18) Lions in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

This season, Alabama enters the game ranked second in the nation in both Top 25 Polls - the Associated Press (AP) and the USA Today/Coach's Poll (CP). Conversely, Penn State is currently not ranked in the AP and is #25 in the CP. Both teams were able to easily defeat their opponents at home in week 1, however, they were from inferior, non-BCS schools; thus, how good they actually are remains a mystery.

(Update - Week 2 Polls: Alabama #3 in AP and #2 in CP - Penn State #23 in the AP and #20 in the CP)

The Crimson Tide opened the season at home defeating Kent State 48 to 7. They were able to rack up 482 total yards on offense (299 passing and 183 rushing) while holding Kent State to only 90 total yards (99 passing and -9 rushing). Yes, you read that right! Minus 9 Yards Rushing! Bama scored a total of six touchdowns and kicked two field goals. While their win seems impressive, there were a few areas of concern on offense.

The two quarterback system Saban chose to employ led to 4 interceptions, two thrown by each AJ McCarron and Phillip Sims. McCarron completed 14 out of 23 passing attempts (60.9% CMP%) for 226 yards (9.8 YPA), one touchdown, and a QB rating of 140.4. Sims, in contrast, only completed 7 of 14 passing attempts (50% CMP%) for 73 yards (5.21 YPA), no touchdowns, and a 65.2 QB rating. McCarron was never sacked, but Sims was twice. McCarron appeared to have the better game, and I would expect Saban to start and only play him against the Lions.
Also, Heisman Trophy Hopeful, Trent Richardson, was only able to gain 37 yards on 13 carries; an average of only 2.8 yards per carry and a long of only 10 yards. Richardson is expected to lead the Tide's rushing attack, and although he did score 3 touchdowns, his overall performance was far from Heismanesque. Sophomore Jalston Fowler led the tide with 69 yards on 4 carries (17.3 YPC) and scored a touchdown on a 49 yard run, the longest of the day. Close behind, sophomore Eddie Lacey rushed for 58 yards on 8 carries (7.3 YPC). Lacey had a long of 23 and scored one touchdown.
As expected from a well coached Saban team, the Tide only had 2 penalties for 10 yards.

In contrast, the Lions defeated Indiana State 41 to 7, and looked more impressive and crisp than Bama. They committed no turnovers and were able to control the clock by rushing for 245 yards. Their defense only allowed 170 total yards (105 passing and 65 rushing). It was classic "Joe Pa" football...few mistakes but nothing major (7 penalties for 45 yards), great special teams play (opening kickoff returned 95 yards for a touchdown by Chaz Powell), running the ball, and playing solid defense.

Sophomore Rob Bolden started at quarterback in week one, but I would expect to see junior Mathew McGloin challenge him for the start against Bama. McGloin completed 6 out of 8 passing attempts (75% CMP%) for 77 yards (9.6 YPA), no touchdowns, and a QB rating of 155.9. Bolden, on the other hand, only completed 6 of 12 passing attempts (50% CMP%) for 37 yards (3.08 YPA), zero touchdowns, and a QB rating of 75.9. Bolden was also sacked twice and McGloin only once.
Sophomore running back Silas Redd led the Lions rushing attack with 12 carries for 104 yards (8.7 YPC), a long of 19, and two touchdowns. Sophomore Curtis Dukes gave the Lions 47 yards on 6 carries (7.8 YPC), and junior Brandon Beachum rushed for 41 yards on 7 carries (5.9 YPC). Senior Joe Suhey and junior Michael Zordich each scored rushing touchdowns against the Sycamores, with Suhey getting 6 carries for 29 yards (4.8 YAC) and Zordich rushing for 15 yards on 5 carries (3.0 YAC). The Penn Stat rushing attack took care of the lessor competition because it was unstoppable, and Redd's running was impressive. However, I don't expect to see the same performance against the Tide's rushing D.

Alabama may be the better team on paper, but they will not survive a trip to State College and remain the #2 team in the nation if they commit 4 turnovers again. Saban must shore up the mistakes to beat Joe Pa and not jeopardize the Tide's shot to win a 2nd BCS National Championship this year in New Orleans.

I'm not quite willing to put Alabama on upset alert, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if Penn State and JoePa were able to steal a win. Penn State must mix the run and the pass well. If they become predictable, expect to see this Alabama defense disrupt their entire game plan. For Penn State to actually beat Bama, they will need quarterbacks McCarron and/or Sims to repeat their 4 turnover performance. If the defense and special teams units can't provide the offense with favorable field position, then the Nittany Lions can not win this game.

Penn State has a chance, however, it is slim and I wouldn't put my money on it! The Tide will leave State College 2-0 because their defense is just that good.

Brian Johnson

Alabama vs Penn State: Can the Nittany Lions roll passed the tide?

Brian Johnson

A. K.

Billy-Brad Forrester

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