Can the Oregon Ducks uptempo spread offense overcome elite defenses?

A	Yes. If Chip Kelly is able to recruit elite players across the board for his offense, then it would be capable of defeating elite defenses. The teams capable of stopping Oregon's uptempo spread offense have more talent, in particular, on the defensive line.

B	No. Chip Kelly's offense is a gimmick. It will always fall short versus elite defenses. Adding better talent might make games closer, but it still won't be able to win.

C	The offense is not the problem, but rather Chip Kelly's play calling is the issue. If he mixed the pass with the run early in these games, then the Ducks would be able to move the ball just fine.

In week 1 of the 2011 college football season, the Oregon Ducks once again had their uptempo spread offense stymied by an elite defense. Prior to the BCS National Championship Game versus the Auburn Tigers last season, the 2010 Ducks offense generated the following numbers and rankings led by their star running back LaMichael James, who finished 3rd for the Heisman Trophy Award:

2010 Oregon Ducks Statistics prior to the BCS Championship Game

Rush Offense: 303.38 yards per game - 4th

Passing Offense: 233.67 - 49th
Total Offense: 537.50 yards per game - 1st
Scoring Offense: 49.33 - 1st

LaMichael James statistics prior to BCS National Championship
Rushing Attempts: 281
Rushing Yards: 1682
Averaging 6.0 yards per carry
Rushing Yards per Game: 140.2
Touchdowns: 21
Long: 76

As the statistics suggest, the Ducks are known for their rush offense. In their first twelve games of 2010, it was one of the best in the nation. Often it seemed unstoppable. The tempo of their offense was regularly described as "too fast and too conditioned" for any defense to handle. They were even predicted to run all over the Auburn Tigers, the #1 rush defense from the SEC, in the BCS National Championship Game.

However, pundits were wrong and Ducks fans were left disappointed as Nick Fairley and the Auburn front seven dominated the line of scrimmage and allowed the Ducks to gain only 75 total yards on the ground and only 19 total points - 228 rushing yards and 21 points less than their season average. James, the Doak Award Winner, looked pedestrian. He only had 13 carries for 49 yards and averaged only 3.8 yards per carry - 99 less yards and 2.2 less yards per carry than his season average. Also, the Ducks were incapable of scoring a rushing TD after several attempts from within the five yard line, and James was tackled for a safety by Auburn's Mike Blanc. Simply put, Auburn's defensive line dominated the game.

On September 3, 2011, the Ducks faced the LSU Tigers in the "Cowboys Classic" in Dallas, Texas, and once again their uptempo spread offense was controlled by a defense considered elite by college football analysts and fans. The LSU defense only gave up the following numbers to the Ducks offense and James:

Oregon Ducks Statistics vs LSU Tigers Defense
Total Yards: 335
Rushing Yards: 95
Passing Yards: 240
Scoring: 27

LaMichael James statistics vs the LSU Tigers Defense
Rushing Attempts: 18
Rushing Yards: 54
Averaging 3.0 yards per carry
Touchdowns: 1
Long: 13

The Tigers defense and special teams punished the Ducks causing four turnovers - 3 fumbles and 1 interception. In the beginning of the 2nd quarter, LSU's Tyrann Mathieu forced Oregon's Kenjon Barner to fumble on a punt return and picked it up for the Tigers first touchdown. However, the Ducks were still in the game at this point, entering half time trailing 13 to 16; but in the 3rd quarter, the Tigers defense took complete command of the game and basically put it away. In a matter of six minutes, beginning at the 9:00 minute mark, the Ducks trailed 30-13 after the LSU offense was able to capitalize and score touchdowns following back to back fumbles by Oregon's true freshman WR/RB De'Anthony Thomas.

The Ducks were able to put together a 14 play, five minute drive in the beginning of the 4th quarter to score a quick TD and only trail by 13 points. Next, the Ducks defense caused the Tigers offense to go three and out, giving life and hope to the Ducks, but they would have to score in a hurry on their next drive for a realistic shot at coming back as there was only a little over six minutes left in the game.

The LSU defense, however, prevailed once again, forcing Oregon to punt after three plays. Following the punt, the Tigers crushed U of O's hope for a comeback by scoring another touchdown. The final score of the game read 40-27, though, the Ducks added a touchdown with only 14 seconds left to play...in other words, they scored junk points while the LSU defense was in a soft prevent.

Since Coach Chip Kelly has arrived at Oregon, it seems we are constantly being told the Ducks offense is the best in the country and the best anyone will face. As previously noted, they often have been labeled as "unstoppable." These claims are not unfounded. When the Ducks play teams in the PAC 12 or inferior out of conference opponents (Portland State, for example) that do not have extra time to get ready, their offensive numbers have been through the roof. This is, however, misleading. In 2010, they faced teams with the 119th, 118th, 115th, 94th, 86th, 84th, 71st, and 69th ranked Total Defense. In other words, 2/3 of their schedule consisted of teams with a total defense ranked in the bottom half of the nation. The other four of the Ducks opponents ranked 56th, 35th, 22nd, and 18th. So really, the Ducks only saw two defenses ranked in the top 25 in the entire 2010 regular season.

So this leads to the following questions...Is the Ducks uptempo spread offense really as good as advertised? Is it capable of playing with the so called "Big Boys" of college football? If so, is it only stopped when the Ducks face teams with superior talent? If the Ducks were able to recruit better players, would this offense work?

To state it in another way, do the Ducks lose big games because their offense is a "gimmick" or is it because the other teams are simply better and once Oregon is able to add more elite talent to their roster they will be able to beat those teams?

OR Simply, Can Chip Kelly's offense defeat elite defenses with better talent?

For more information and reading on this topic, see the following:

ESPN's Ted Miller: Oregon still hasn't arrived
The Register Guard's George Schroeder: The gap between college football’s good and great just got bigger
The Register Guard's Ken Woody: Ducks in over their heads: LSU dominates 40-27
FOX Sports' Thayer Evans: Oregon flops on another big stage
Sports Illustrated's Stewart Mandel: LSU Defense Makes Early Statement
The Oregonian's John Conzano: Heisman hopes dead for Oregon's LaMichael James
The Democratherald.com's Jesse Sowa: Oregon football: Ducks haven't reached elite status yet

Brian Johnson

Can the Oregon Ducks uptempo spread offense overcome elite defenses?

Brian Johnson

A. K.

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